Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions, selections, history

It didn't take long for 2025 to bring the first El Clasico. Barcelona and Real Madrid will play in the final of the Spanish Super Cup, the third time in a row that these two teams have participated in the final, with the two teams exchanging victories in 2023 and 2024. Since the final moved to a four-team format in 2020, either Barcelona or Real Madird has won it and in the last three editions, the team that won the final has also lifted the La Liga title at the end of the season.

Although it is a small sample, it also shows that this matching is anything but a standard exhibition. The Clasico is always important for these teams, even if it's just to gain a psychological advantage, but if there's silverware on the line, it will always mean more.

Last meeting

They may be different teams to the last time they met in October, but Barcelona is hoping for a similar result. Hansi Flick's men have established themselves as genuine contenders for the La Liga title, winning that match with an impressive 4-0 scoreline. Robert Lewandowski scored and, more importantly, Barcelona managed to keep an empty net against a top team. The match revealed some of the mistakes made by Carlo Ancelotti's team, which have now been corrected, as Real Madrid are top of La Liga. It was a match that was more even than the scoreline suggested, and it is an opportunity to show their growth.

How they got here

In Saudi Arabia, both teams won their semi-final matches with draws, but in very different ways. In contrast to Athletic Club, Barcelona quickly took the lead through Gavi before controlling the game from start to finish. Lamine Yamal added an insurance goal to become the second-youngest player ever to score in the competition, only behind him who scored against Osasuna last season. There are not enough words to describe what Yamal is doing at just 17 years old, but he will be a key figure in the final.

Madrid started slowly against Mallorca, but when Jude Bellingham scored in the 63rd minute, the door was opened. Los Blancos forced an own goal and Rodrygo scored both in the referee's injury time to make the score more a reflection of their dominance during the game. They will now try to carry that momentum into the final.

History of Clasico

This match will be the 259th time these two teams have met in an official competition in what has been a closely contested rivalry. Barcelona have 101 wins, Real Madrid 105 and the duo have drawn 52 other matches. Even when it comes to goals, the statistics are close: Barcelona have scored 423 and Real Madrid 433. More precisely, this will be the 18th meeting in the Spanish Super Cup, but Real Madrid has had the advantage in this competition, winning 10 games and drawing two. and lost five against Barcelona. Barcelona is the most successful team in the history of the Super Cup, having won it 14 times, but Real Madrid can level things up with a win and add to their 13 titles in the competition.

Registration door

During this tournament, Barcelona has been dealing with the now-resolved issue regarding the registration of Dani Olmo and Pau Victor. Both players were registered for the season due to a clause that allows Barcelona 80 % of salary due to an injured player. The problem is that the registration only lasted until 31 December to give Barcelona time to either secure new revenue streams or find other ways to comply with the financial regulations. While Barcelona concluded a deal to sell luxury seats on Spotify Camp Nou, the RFEF-La Liga Coordination Agreement Monitoring Committee considered that the duo still could not be registered because Barcelona could not prove that it had received the funds from this. deal in time. This has now been resolved in the courts for the registration of both for La Liga, but this does not mean that Barcelona is out of the woods yet.

Star striker Raphinha has spoken about how this could affect deals for future players, and while these consequences remain to be seen, it is a significant problem that Barcelona would not be able to secure a player's registration for the whole season without having to lodge several complaints. When such problems arise from COVID, there is no way of knowing when Barcelona's finances will be in order.

Could Mbappe be the guy?

After signing Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid were expected to dominate world football and although they are still managing well, this is not exactly the escape they expected. Mbappe, who is a natural left winger, has often occupied the spaces occupied by Vinicius Junior for Los Blancos, leading to a dazzling attack from the Madrid players. There were moments when he showed he could do it, but they were anything but consistent. With 13 goals and three assists in 26 appearances in all competitions, Mbappe has been far from his usual goalscoring range, and he has already missed two 11th-minute penalties this season.

On the bright side, Mbappe doesn't have to be exactly the same man he was at Paris Saint-Germain for Real Madrid to win, but given their current set-up, he needs to be accepted as a number nine star and win his way to the central positions on the pitch. This adaptation is happening, but it will take time for the left-wing position to disappear from his DNA.

Forecast

This is a match that will be fascinating because Barcelona's offside trap has been effective in defence, but when it breaks down they can be very vulnerable. Mbappe is also a player who enjoys playing off the back shoulder of the defence, so he is prone to being caught offside by a disciplined defence. But this also opens Barcelona up to threats like Federico Valverde, who drops the ball over the top or shoots from distance to test them. If Real Madrid can prevent Yamal from running down the flanks in the duel, there is certainly a path to victory, but it will be a highly contentious affair between the duo. Result: Real Madrid 3, Barcelona 2